Will Gas Prices Go Down? A Data-Driven Outlook
A data-driven gas price outlook — not a hard prediction. What our seasonal trends and the latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (September 2026) suggest for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
The seasonal pattern, and where we are now
Across 26 full years of our EIA weekly data since 2000, the national average has climbed from a January low toward a spring/summer peak in 25 of those years, peaking around June before easing in the fall — once the costlier summer-grade fuel requirement lifts in mid-September. So the calendar leans toward firmer prices into summer and softer prices afterward. Why prices rise every summer →
Right now, the U.S. average for regular is $4.32 (week of September 14, 2026) — +36% versus a year ago. See the live figure and the full trend on the national tracker.
What the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects
In its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (released September 9, 2026), the EIA forecasts a retail regular-grade gasoline price of $3.84/gal in 2026, easing to $3.35/gal in 2027 — the pump price, with federal and state taxes plus distribution and marketing included. [1] The same outlook gives the underlying wholesale price as $3.11/gal (2026) and $2.39/gal (2027), before those taxes and margins. [2] The signal that matters is the direction: the EIA expects gasoline to ease from 2026 into 2027.
The forecast is driven by crude oil, and the EIA’s published path has a clear shape. Brent crude peaks at $102.93/b in Q2 2026, while Middle East supply is most constrained, then eases to $90.66/b by Q4 2026 as flows recover. That leaves a 2026 annual average of $91.01/b, falling to $73.74/b in 2027 (WTI: $84.65/b and $69.74/b). [2] Because the cost of crude oil is the single largest factor in the retail price, the pump-price outlook effectively tracks the crude oil outlook. [4]
| Q1 2026 | $81.11 |
| Q2 2026 | $102.93peak |
| Q3 2026 | $89.11 |
| Q4 2026 | $90.66 |
What wholesale prices are signaling right now
Pump prices are a weekly survey; wholesale gasoline trades every day. Because stations reprice against what their next delivery costs, a sustained move in the wholesale market usually shows up at the pump within 1–2 weeks — which makes this the earliest honest read on where prices are heading, ahead of any monthly forecast.
New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Gallon) — the last 12 months of EIA’s daily series. A wholesale price at one trading hub, before federal and state taxes, distribution and station margin, so it runs well below the pump price.
What the two say together. EIA expects wholesale gasoline to ease from $3.11/gal in 2026 to $2.39/gal in 2027.[2] Over the past 32 days, New York Harbor conventional gasoline spot prices have risen 10.7%, to $3.535/gal on September 15, 2026 — so the near-term market is pointing the other way.[5] Wholesale moves usually reach the pump within 1–2 weeks, so this is the near-term read; EIA’s figures are annual averages of a U.S. refiner price, and the spot price is one hub’s daily quote, so the directions compare but the levels do not.
Why forecasts get overrun
The biggest reason to hold any gas-price forecast loosely is that a single global event can override both the seasonal pattern and last month’s projection. 2026 is the live example: a Middle East supply disruption pushed crude — and pump prices — sharply higher, well beyond what the calendar alone would suggest, and the EIA has revised its outlook every month since as the disruption has evolved. When crude is calm, the seasonal tailwind dominates and prices behave predictably; when it isn’t, geopolitics wins. Why gas prices rose in 2026 →
The gas price outlook, answered
- Will gas prices go down?
- It depends mostly on crude oil. In its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts wholesale gasoline easing from $3.11 a gallon in 2026 to $2.39 in 2027 (a pre-tax wholesale price; the pump price runs higher), with Brent crude averaging $91.01 a barrel in 2026 and $73.74 in 2027. Because crude is the largest factor in the pump price, that points toward easing prices in 2027, absent a new shock. Our own weekly data also shows a seasonal pattern — prices typically rise from a January low toward a June peak, then ease in the fall.
- What is the gas price forecast for 2026?
- The EIA's September 2026 STEO forecasts retail (pump) gasoline to average $3.84 per gallon in 2026 and $3.35 in 2027, with the underlying wholesale price at $3.11 and $2.39. The path runs through crude: Brent peaks at $102.93 a barrel in Q2 2026 as Middle East supply stays constrained, then eases to $90.66 by Q4 2026 as flows recover, averaging $73.74 in 2027. These are EIA figures, published September 9, 2026, and they move each month with the crude oil outlook.
- Will gas prices drop next month?
- We don't publish a specific next-month price — short-term moves depend on crude oil and refining, which no one forecasts precisely. What the data offers is direction: our weekly series shows prices usually firmest through the summer driving season and easing once the summer-blend requirement lifts in mid-September. For the official month-by-month path, the EIA's monthly STEO is the authoritative source.
- Are these gas price predictions reliable?
- Treat them as an outlook, not a guarantee. The seasonal pattern is a reliable direction in our data but a noisy magnitude, and the EIA's STEO is an official forecast that the EIA itself revises monthly as crude oil and geopolitics change. The 2026 spike — driven by a Middle East supply disruption — is a live example of a global event overriding the normal seasonal pattern.
Where the forecast figures come from
- [1]U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (released September 9, 2026), Petroleum Products — forecasts a retail regular-grade gasoline price of $3.84/gal in 2026 and $3.35/gal in 2027, an underlying refiner wholesale gasoline price of $3.11/gal and $2.39/gal, and a Brent crude oil spot price averaging $91.01/b in 2026 (peaking at $102.93/b in Q2 2026) and $73.74/b in 2027
- [2]U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 2 “Energy Prices” (September 2026 edition) — the published annual and quarterly averages quoted above, in EIA's own table
- [3]U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook — home, monthly forecast tables and data (the STEO is reissued monthly; figures here are the September 2026 edition)
- [4]U.S. EIA, Energy Explained — “Factors affecting gasoline prices”: the cost of crude oil is the largest single factor in the retail price, so gasoline forecasts hinge on the crude oil outlook
- [5]U.S. EIA, Daily spot prices — New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Gallon): $3.535/gal on September 15, 2026, +10.7% from $3.192/gal on August 14, 2026
The seasonal pattern and current price are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly retail series, held in our own database. The forward-looking price figures are the EIA’s published Short-Term Energy Outlook projection (September 2026, released September 9, 2026), not our own estimate. The wholesale trend is EIA's daily EER_EPMRU_PF4_Y35NY_DPG spot series — observed market prices, not a forecast.